A new poll conducted by Battleground Connect, provided to The Virginia Star by the congressional campaign of Delegate John McGuire (R-Goochland), indicates the majority of Republicans in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District will support former President Donald Trump over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in March 2024, and may choose McGuire over Representative Bob Good (R-VA-05) when voters return to the polls in June.
The survey reported that 71 percent of Republicans in Virginia’s 5th district hold a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to just 15 percent who hold an unfavorable opinion. Just 43 percent of those respondents reported a favorable opinion of DeSantis, while 34 percent had no opinion.
In a hypothetical contest between just Trump and DeSantis for the Republican nomination, the pollsters found 66 percent would vote for Trump, while just 19 percent would vote for DeSantis.
Good (pictured above, right) endorsed DeSantis in May, before DeSantis formally announced his campaign. “The calls from the Never Back Down movement are growing stronger every day,” Good claimed, invoking the name of the preeminent Super PAC supporting DeSantis. Jeff Roe, the Republican political operative who was the top advisor to Never Back Down, left the group on Saturday.
The pollsters said the data represents “a clear path for victory” for McGuire (pictured above, left). Noting “Trump’s image and favorability” is strong in the district, they declare, “McGuire finds himself in a position to win – so long as a robust and defined messaging campaign is executed.”
A total of 24 percent of voters in the district told pollsters they would support McGuire, compared to 46 who would support Good, if the election were held today. However, when pollsters read voters “a series of messaging statements both outlining Good’s vulnerabilities and outlining McGuire’s accomplishments and achievements,” McGuire surged to 64 percent of support compared to Good’s 15 percent.
Additionally, while 48 percent of voters reported having a positive opinion of Good, compared to 13 percent who hold a positive opinion about McGuire, the pollsters found a significant 78 percent of the district’s Republican voters hold no opinion about McGuire.
“McGuire is in the strongest position to unseat Bob Good,” the pollsters declared, claiming their data shows “a well-executed messaging campaign” from McGuire will result in the State Senator-elect winning “this Republican Primary by nearly 50 points.”
McGuire launched his congressional bid shortly after winning his election to the Virginia Senate in November, and announced his campaign in a statement accusing Good of betraying Trump and failing his constituents. The Goochland County Republican Committee issued a vote of no confidence after McGuire’s announcement, citing the timing of his announcement and previous promises they claim he made not to run, but a secretly recorded video of Good appearing to badmouth the former president may boost him.
In the edited clip, Good clarified, “you’re asking me privately, I don’t say this publicly,” before apparently claiming Trump “might be the only person that can lose to Joe Biden,” and questioning the former president’s conservative principles. Justifying his earlier endorsement of DeSantis, Good said in the clip, “I can’t stand by and watch, and then regret, that we nominated Trump,” then cited “the prosecutions and the courts” causing “baggage” for the former president.
Battleground Connect said the survey was conducted between November 30 and December 2, and included 971 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters. Pollsters reported a margin of error or plus or minus 3.2 percent and a 95 percent level of confidence in their data.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Georgia Star News, The Virginia Star, and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Rep Bob Good” by Rep. Bob Good and “John McGuire” is by John McGuire.
